A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

The Metapopulation Dynamics of an Infectious Disease: Tuberculosis in Possums

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed—its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations

Studies of assisted reproduction in the spotted grass frog Limnodynastes tasmaniensis: ovulation, early development and microinjection (ICSI)

Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) offer a wide range of techniques that have the potential to augment efforts to conserve and manage endangered amphibians and improve wild and captive population numbers. Gametes and tissues of species nearing endangered or extinct status can be cryopreserved and stored in gene banks, to provide material that can be utilised in the future as ART methods are refined. The Spotted Grass Frog, Limnodynastes tasmaniensis, is an abundant amphibian species in South-Eastern Australia of the family Myobatrachidae, that is suitable for the development of ART systems that can be applied to the threatened and endangered myobatrachid and other amphibian species native to Australia. The aim of this study was to advance the understanding of ovulation, fertilisation and embryo nic development of Lim. tasmaniensis and in vitro manipulations of reproduction and development for use in the development of advanced ART procedures such as intracytoplasmic spermatozoon injection (ICSI), androgenesis and nuclear transfer. Ovulation in amphibians can be induced by protocols utilising natural or synthetic hormones. All protocols tested on Lim. tasmaniensis in this study required two injections and the most effective protocols continued to require a first injection of pituitary extracts to induce ovulation. The second injection was, however, successfully replaced by synthetic chorionic gonadotrophin at a threshold dosage of 100 iu and halved the number of cane toads required to source the pituitaries. A combination of LHRH and Pimozide offered a less effective protocol, that did not require the use of pituitary extracts, and avoided the risk of pathogen transfer associated with unsterilised pituitary extracts. Unfertilised eggs of Lim. tasmaniensis were exposed to media of various osmolalities to determine media effects on eggs and their surrounding jelly layers that might impact on egg viability and fertilisability. Osmolality had no effect upon the egg diameter, however, rapid swelling of the jelly layers occurred within 15 minutes of exposure to various media treatments and plateaued from 30-90 minutes without further expansion. Swelling of the jelly layers was increased in hypotonic media (2.5% SAR, H2O) and minimised in the isotonic media (100% SAR). The optimal conditions for the culture of Lim. tasmaniensis eggs were identified as a holding media of 100% SAR, followed by a medium change to 2.5% SAR at insemination. This sequence of media minimised the rate of swelling of the jelly layers prior to contact with the spermatozoa, and maximised the activation of spermatozoa and eggs throughout fertilisation and embryonic development. Embryos of Lim. tasmaniensis were cultured at four temperatures (13 C, 17 C, 23 C and 29 C), to determine the effect of temperature on cleavage and embryonic development rates. Embryonic development progressed through a sequence of stages that were not altered by changes in temperature. However cleavage rates were affected by changes in temperature as compared with normal embryonic growth at 23 C. Embryonic development was suspended at the lowest temperature (13 C) while embryonic viability was maintained. A moderate decrease in temperature (17 C) slowed cleavage, while the highest temperature (29 C) increased the cleavage rate, but decreased the embryo survival. Rates of embryonic development can be manipulated by changes in temperature and this method can be used to source blastomeres of a specific size/stage at a predetermined age or halt cleavage at specific stages for embryos or embryo derived cells to be included in ART procedures. This study produced the first report of the application of Intracytoplasmic Spermatozoon Injection (ICSI) in an Australian amphibian. Eggs that were activated by microinjection with a single spermatozoon (n=50) formed more deep, but abnormal, cleavage furrows post-injection (18/50, 36%), than surface changes (12/50, 24%). This result is in contrast to eggs injected without a spermatozoon (n=42), where the majority of eggs displayed limited surface changes (36/42, 86%), and few deep, abnormal furrows (3/42, 7%). Three advanced embryos (3/50, 6%) were produced by ICSI that developed to various stages within the culture system. Technical difficulties were encountered that prevented the generation of any metamorphs from ICSI tadpoles. Nevertheless, when these blocks to ICSI are overcome, the ICSI procedure will be both directly useful as an ART procedure in its own right, and the associated refinement of micromanipulation procedures will assist in the development of other ART procedures in Lim. tasmaniensis. A greater understanding of basic reproductive and developmental biology in Lim. tasmaniensis would greatly facilitate refinement of fertilisation by ICSI. Assisted Reproductive Technologies, in conjunction with gene banks may in the future regenerate extinct amphibian species, and assist in the recovery of declining amphibian populations nationally and worldwide.

A model for integrating clinical care and basic science research, and pitfalls of performing complex research projects for addressing a clinical challenge

The collaboration of clinicians with basic science researchers is crucial for addressing clinically relevant research questions. In order to initiate such mutually beneficial relationships, we propose a model where early career clinicians spend a designated time embedded in established basic science research groups, in order to pursue a postgraduate qualification. During this time, clinicians become integral members of the research team, fostering long term relationships and opening up opportunities for continuing collaboration. However, for these collaborations to be successful there are pitfalls to be avoided. Limited time and funding can lead to attempts to answer clinical challenges with highly complex research projects characterised by a large number of "clinical" factors being introduced in the hope that the research outcomes will be more clinically relevant. As a result, the complexity of such studies and variability of its outcomes may lead to difficulties in drawing scientifically justified and clinically useful conclusions. Consequently, we stress that it is the basic science researcher and the clinician's obligation to be mindful of the limitations and challenges of such multi-factorial research projects. A systematic step-by-step approach to address clinical research questions with limited, but highly targeted and well defined research projects provides the solid foundation which may lead to the development of a longer term research program for addressing more challenging clinical problems. Ultimately, we believe that it is such models, encouraging the vital collaboration between clinicians and researchers for the work on targeted, well defined research projects, which will result in answers to the important clinical challenges of today.

Symbolic number : the integration of magnitude and spatial representations in children aged 6 to 8 years

The process of learning symbolic Arabic digits in early childhood requires that magnitude and spatial information integrates with the concept of symbolic digits. Previous research has separately investigated the development of automatic access to magnitude and spatial information from symbolic digits. However, developmental trajectories of symbolic number knowledge cannot be fully understood when considering components in isolation. In view of this, we have synthesized the existing lines of research and tested the use of both magnitude and spatial information with the same sample of British children in Years 1, 2 and 3 (6-8 years of age). The physical judgment task of the numerical Stroop paradigm (NSP) demonstrated that automatic access to magnitude was present from Year 1 and the distance effect signaled that a refined processing of numerical information had developed. Additionally, a parity judgment task showed that the onset of the Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Codes (SNARC) effect occurs in Year 2. These findings uncover the developmental timeline of how magnitude and spatial representations integrate with symbolic number knowledge during early learning of Arabic digits and resolve inconsistencies between previous developmental and experimental research lines.

Basic finance made accessible in Excel 2007 : "the big 5, plus 2"

The basic principles and equations are developed for elementary finance, based on the concept of compound interest. The five quantities of interest in such problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of interest per period. We consider three distinct means of computing each of these five quantities in Excel 2007: (i) use of algebraic equations, (ii) by recursive schedule and the Goal Seek facility, and (iii) use of Excel's intrinsic financial functions. The paper is intended to be used as the basis for a lesson plan and contains many examples and solved problems. Comment is made regarding the relative difficulty of each approach, and a prominent theme is the systematic use of more than one method to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained. Full instructions to build each type of model are given and a complete set of examples and solutions may be downloaded (Examples.xlsx and Solutions.xlsx).

Teaching basic finance with Excel, and without pain

The five quantities of interest in elementary finance problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of compound interest per period. A recursive approach to computing each of these five quantities in a modern version of Excel, for the case of ordinary annuities, is described. The aim is to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained, and this may be achieved with only linear relationships and in cases where student knowledge of algebra is essentially zero. Annuity problems may be solved without use of logarithms and black-box intrinsic functions; these being used only as check mechanisms. The author has had success with the method at Bond University and surrounding high schools in Queensland, Australia.

Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

Reduced withdrawal and failure rates of accelerated nursing students enrolled in pharmacology is associated with a supportive intervention

Background To reduce nursing shortages, accelerated nursing programs are available for domestic and international students. However, the withdrawal and failure rates from these programs may be different than for the traditional programs. The main aim of our study was to improve the retention and experience of accelerated nursing students. Methods The academic background, age, withdrawal and failure rates of the accelerated and traditional students were determined. Data from 2009 and 2010 were collected prior to intervention. In an attempt to reduce the withdrawal of accelerated students, we set up an intervention, which was available to all students. The assessment of the intervention was a pre-post-test design with non-equivalent groups (the traditional and the accelerated students). The elements of the intervention were a) a formative website activity of some basic concepts in anatomy, physiology and pharmacology, b) a workshop addressing study skills and online resources, and c) resource lectures in anatomy/physiology and microbiology. The formative website and workshop was evaluated using questionnaires. Results The accelerated nursing students were five years older than the traditional students (p < 0.0001). The withdrawal rates from a pharmacology course are higher for accelerated nursing students, than for traditional students who have undertaken first year courses in anatomy and physiology (p = 0.04 in 2010). The withdrawing students were predominantly the domestic students with non-university qualifications or equivalent experience. The failure rates were also higher for this group, compared to the traditional students (p = 0.05 in 2009 and 0.03 in 2010). In contrast, the withdrawal rates for the international and domestic graduate accelerated students were very low. After the intervention, the withdrawal and failure rates in pharmacology for domestic accelerated students with non-university qualifications were not significantly different than those of traditional students. Conclusions The accelerated international and domestic graduate nursing students have low withdrawal rates and high success rates in a pharmacology course. However, domestic students with non-university qualifications have higher withdrawal and failure rates than other nursing students and may be underprepared for university study in pharmacology in nursing programs. The introduction of an intervention was associated with reduced withdrawal and failure rates for these students in the pharmacology course.

Stable expression of silencing-suppressor protein enhances the performance and longevity of an engineered metabolic pathway

Transgenic engineering of plants is important in both basic and applied research. However, the expression of a transgene can dwindle over time as the plant's small (s)RNA-guided silencing pathways shut it down. The silencing pathways have evolved as antiviral defence mechanisms, and viruses have co-evolved viral silencing-suppressor proteins (VSPs) to block them. Therefore, VSPs have been routinely used alongside desired transgene constructs to enhance their expression in transient assays. However, constitutive, stable expression of a VSP in a plant usually causes pronounced developmental abnormalities, as their actions interfere with endogenous microRNA-regulated processes, and has largely precluded the use of VSPs as an aid to stable transgene expression. In an attempt to avoid the deleterious effects but obtain the enhancing effect, a number of different VSPs were expressed exclusively in the seeds of Arabidopsis thaliana alongside a three-step transgenic pathway for the synthesis of arachidonic acid (AA), an ω-6 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acid. Results from independent transgenic events, maintained for four generations, showed that the VSP-AA-transformed plants were developmentally normal, apart from minor phenotypes at the cotyledon stage, and could produce 40% more AA than plants transformed with the AA transgene cassette alone. Intriguingly, a geminivirus VSP, V2, was constitutively expressed without causing developmental defects, as it acts on the siRNA amplification step that is not part of the miRNA pathway, and gave strong transgene enhancement. These results demonstrate that VSP expression can be used to protect and enhance stable transgene performance and has significant biotechnological application.

Near-infrared spectroscopic study of basic aluminum sulfate and nitrate

The tridecameric Al-polymer [AlO4Al12(OH)24(H2O)12]7+ was prepared by forced hydrolysis of Al3+ up to an OH/Al molar ratio of 2.2. Under slow evaporation crystals were formed of Al13-nitrate. Upon addition of sulfate the tridecamer crystallised as the monoclinic Al13-sulfate. These crystals have been studied using near-infrared spectroscopy and compared to Al2(SO4)3.16H2O. Although the near-infrared spectra of the Al13-sulfate and nitrate are very similar indicating similar crystal structures, there are minor differences related to the strength with which the crystal water molecules are bonded to the salt groups. The interaction between crystal water and nitrate is stronger than with the sulfate as reflected by the shift of the crystal water band positions from 6213, 4874 and 4553 cm–1 for the Al13 sulfate towards 5925, 4848 and 4532 cm–1 for the nitrate. A reversed shift from 5079 and 5037 cm–1 for the sulfate towards 5238 and 5040 cm–1 for the nitrate for the water molecules in the Al13 indicate that the nitrate-Al13 bond is weakened due to the influence of the crystal water on the nitrate. The Al-OH bond in the Al13 complex is not influenced by changing the salt group due to the shielding by the water molecules of the Al13 complex.

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.